1X on home outsiders betting is a strategy that helps punters increase their chances of success when wagering on underdogs. You benefit from covering two outcomes and receiving value odds.
1X is a type of double chance market. This market allows you to cover two out of three outcomes in a game. With a 1X bet, you predict that the home team will win the match or that it will end in a draw. Either outcome will result in a winning wager.
When using 1X bet on home outsiders, you are backing teams that are playing at their home stadium but are predicted to lose the game. They are assigned a significantly higher price by the sportsbook compared to the away team. It can be the result of them being in a bad form or being perceived to have a weaker squad.
This strategy attracts smart bettors because it offers lower risk and increases the chances of success. They only need to avoid one out of three outcomes to win. In terms of reward, they benefit from quality odds despite minimizing their risk.
Let’s look at an example of a recent successful use of 1X on home outsiders football betting strategy. In November 2024, Bournemouth were huge underdogs ahead of their Premier League home game against Manchester City, with the following odds:
The bookies heavily favored Man City because the team was undefeated in the 2024-25 season at that point. But experienced punters noticed that Bournemouth suffered just one home defeat, a close 0-1 loss to Chelsea. Also, the Cherries were in good form, previously claiming another home game where they were heavy underdogs, a 2:0 win over Arsenal.
Football outsiders betting on this match ended up being successful as Bournemouth won the match 2:1. Punters more than doubled their stakes despite covering two out of three possible outcomes of the game.
Home team advantage is a notion that teams play better at their home field and in front of their own fans. It often depends on psychological effects, but it is very much real.
Back in 2017, Sky Sports analyzed all matches in English leagues that took place since 1888. Their findings showed that home advantage is still present despite being on the decline in recent years. In the 2016/17 Premier League season, 49.2% of Premier League teams won matches at their home stadium. In MLS, home teams win in 69.1% of their games.
In 2025, a group of scientists released a study that examined the impact of home advantage on the individual performance of players across five major soccer leagues in Europe (Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1). The study showed that footballers had more goals, assists, and key passes when playing at home compared to their performance in away matches.
Underdogs are able to perform better at home because they feel more comfortable when cheered by their own fans. Other factors include familiarity with the surroundings, less fatigue, and occasional referee bias.
One major reason why you should bet outsiders when they play at home is that they are often underestimated. There is always a perception that underdogs have less-skilled players. But, in reality, the underdog status isn’t simply the reflection of the squad’s strength. Other factors, like recent form or a change of coach, also play a significant role.
People also often disregard the motivation of underdogs to rise to the occasion, especially when playing at home. Furthermore, games tend to be unpredictable due to unforeseen circumstances like red cards, penalties, or injuries.
Public bias plays a significant role in the perception of two teams facing each other. If one team has a bigger fan base or is considered historically successful, it will attract more bets. This will cause bookmakers to lower the odds on them in order to reduce liability. The other team will then be perceived as a bigger underdog based on prices rather than their form or capabilities.
One example is the UEFA Euro 2004 finals between Greece and Portugal. The public and the media expected Portugal, a national team with a track record of success, to easily dominate the match. The bookmakers followed suit by placing odds of 8.05 on Greece. By doing so, they disregarded that Greece already beat Portugal in the Group stage and overcame another favorite in France in the quarter-finals. Greece celebrated a 1-0 win and won the first major trophy in its history.
Before placing an outsiders bet, there are several factors you should take into consideration:
Just like all punting strategies, 1X betting on home outsiders comes with its fair share of pros and cons:
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There are several alternative markets you can combine with betting on 1X for added value. For example, teams playing at home might adopt a more attacking style due to the comfort of familiar surroundings and expectations of fans. You can wager on them to score first or take the “over” on goals total. In a home outsider scenario, the better choice is taking the “under” because underdogs tend to focus more on defense.
Among smart betting moves is combining a 1X wager with player props. For example, the home team’s best goalscorer will receive a bulk of chances for scoring due to an increased focus on the attack. The defense-oriented underdogs will rely on their best goalscorer to often be closest to the goal for counterattacks.
The first tip is to pay close attention to your bankroll management. Backing home outsiders might lead to a series of losing bets before you can find success. This is why it is important to spread out your stakes and adjust them according to the size of your bankroll.
You should also adopt a value betting mindset. Do your research to find opportunities where the bookmakers misprice odds due to increased wagering activity on one team. Exercise discipline and focus on long-term gains instead of short-term profit.
Make sure to avoid emotional bets and “hype” matches. Even if your favorite team is playing, don’t wager on it if it realistically has low chances of getting a positive result. Games that are highly publicized can suffer from public bias and are usually unpredictable. They are always a bad choice for low-risk betting.
Use this soccer betting strategy if you want to minimize the risk on your wagers. Take advantage of games where the home team is highly motivated due to being engaged in a relegation battle or playing in a derby.
Wager against favorites that have poor away performance or lack key players. Also, try to spot instances where the sportsbook will misprice the odds due to public bias. Refer to this sports betting guide for help when in doubt.
Most importantly, remember that the 1X on home outsiders strategy is about probability and risk management. It increases the chances of success by covering two outcomes and can be a good entry to betting for beginners. However, it doesn’t offer any guarantees.
