Who Can Challenge Pogacar? Tour de France 2025 Betting Predictions, Outright Odds & Winning Tips (UCI World Tour 2025, July 5-27)

Tour de France 2025 Predictions, Outright Odds & Winning Tips (UCI World Tour 2025)

Key Info About the 2025 Tour de France

The 2025 Tour de France starts on July 5, with a July 27 final date. The 112th edition of the race will begin in Lille. Over the next 21 stages, the peloton will go through regions of France before signing off in Paris.

ℹ️ Tournament: 2025 UCI World Tour, Tour de France 2025 (Tour of France)
🛣 Stages and Distance: 21 stages covering 3,338.8 kilometers
🗓️ Dates: Saturday, July 5 to Sunday, July 27, 2025

Understanding Tour de France

The Tour de France is the crown jewel of Grand Tour events. It started as a promotional tournament for the French publication L’Equipe in 1903, but eventually, it became a global phenomenon.

Tour de France now covers 21 stages across 23 or 24 days, totalling roughly 3,500 km (2,200 miles).

Last Five Winners of the Tour de France

  • 2024 – Tadej Pogacar of UAE Team Emirates
  • 2023 – Jonas Vingegaard of Team Jumbo–Visma
  • 2022 – Jonas Vingegaard of Team Jumbo–Visma
  • 2021 – Tadej Pogacar of UAE Team Emirates
  • 2020 – Tadej Pogacar of UAE Team Emirates

Tour de France 2025 betting tips are leaning heavily toward another Tadej Pogacar win at this year’s Tour de France. The Slovenian has won the race three times, and flies to France this weekend as the defending champion.

Pogacar became a member of an exclusive club last year after winning the Tour de France. The UAE Team Emirates star is the first cyclist to win the Giro d’Italia and Tour de France since the turn of the century.

2025 Tour de France Stages

Stage Date Route Genre/Difficulty Distance (kms)
1 5 July Lille Metropole-Lille Metropole Flat 184
2 6 July Lauwin Planque-Boulogne- Sur Mer Hilly 209.1
3 7 July Valenciennes- Dunkerque Flat 178.3
4 8 July Amiens Metropole-Rouen Hilly 174.2
5 9 July Caen-Caen Individual Time-Trial 33
6 10 July Bayeux-Vire Normandie Hilly 201.5
7 11 July Saint Malo- Mur de Bretagne Guerledan Hilly 197
8 12 July Saint Meen le Grand-Laval Espace Mayenne Flat 171.4
9 13 July Chinon-Chateauroux Flat 174.1
10 14 July Ennezat-Le Mont Dore Puy de Sancy Mountain 165.3
11 16 July Toulouse- Toulouse Flat 156.8
12 17 July Auch-Hautacam Mountain 180.6
13 18 July Loudenvielle-Peyragudes Individual Time Trial 10.9
14 19 July Pau-Luchon Superbagneres Mountain 182.6
15 20 July Muret-Carcassonne Hilly 169.3
16 22 July Montpellier-Mont Ventoux Mountain 171.5
17 23 July Bollene-Valence Flat 160.4
18 24 July Vif-Courchevel Col de la Loze Mountain 171.5
19 25 July Albertville-La Plagne Mountain 129.9
20 26 July Nantua-Pontarlier Hilly 184.2
21 27 July Mantes la Ville-Paris Champs Elysees Flat 132.3

The route includes five summit finishes and traverses four mountain ranges: the Alps, Massif Central, Jura, and Pyrenees. So, cyclists with strong climbing skills should excel in this year’s Tour de France. Online sportsbooks for cycling have assigned their odds accordingly.

A mountain time trial to Peyragudes adds to the challenge, forming part of the 44 km total against the clock. The first week is anything but easy, packed with northern hills before the race hits its first summit finish on France’s national day.

Tour de France 2025 Odds & Favorites

France online bookies have rolled out their pre-race expectations for the upcoming Tour de France. Here’s how the Tour de France 2025 odds look at the moment:

Tadej Pogacar
Best odds:
1.44 (4/9)
4.1
100% up to $500 on 1st deposit and 50% up to $250 on 2nd deposit
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4.9
250$ Sports Welcome Bonus
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4.6
100% up to $2000
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Jonas Vingegaard
Best odds:
3.60 (13/5)
4.1
100% up to $500 on 1st deposit and 50% up to $250 on 2nd deposit
T&Cs Apply
4.9
250$ Sports Welcome Bonus
T&Cs Apply
4.6
100% up to $2000
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Remco Evenepoel
Best odds:
17.00 (16/1)
4.1
100% up to $500 on 1st deposit and 50% up to $250 on 2nd deposit
T&Cs Apply
4.9
250$ Sports Welcome Bonus
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4.6
100% up to $2000
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Joao Almeida
Best odds:
26.00 (25/1)
4.1
100% up to $500 on 1st deposit and 50% up to $250 on 2nd deposit
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4.9
250$ Sports Welcome Bonus
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4.6
100% up to $2000
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Primoz Roglic
Best odds:
34.00 (33/1)
4.1
100% up to $500 on 1st deposit and 50% up to $250 on 2nd deposit
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4.9
250$ Sports Welcome Bonus
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4.6
100% up to $2000
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Tadej Pogacar @ 1.44 (4/9)

Tadej Pogacar sat out the Giro d’Italia earlier this year, but he did so only to prepare better for the Tour de France. According to sportsbooks, he is the safest option to bet on Tour de France 2025.

Jonas Vingegaard @ 3.60 (13/5)

Jonas Vingegaard also skipped the 2025 Giro d’Italia to focus on the Tour de France. The Dane won this competition twice and comes to France as Pogacar’s biggest challenger. 2025 Tour de France predictions, therefore, will heavily feature Vingegaard.

Remco Evenepoel @ 17.00 (16/1)

There aren’t any low-risk Tour de France betting options outside the Pogacar-Vingegaard duopoly. Remco Evenpoel had a podium finish last year, and even though he is a longshot, the Belgian enters the fray as one of the contenders.

Joao Almeida @ 26.00 (25/1)

Joao Almeida will look to spoil his UAE Team Emirates colleague Pogacar’s party. He has been in good form recently with wins at Itzulia Basque Country, the Tour de Romandie, and the Tour de Suisse.

Primoz Roglic @ 34.00 (33/1)

Primoz Roglic wraps up the top five. The Red Bull–Bora–Hansgrohe cyclist has five Grand Tour titles to his name, but he is yet to win the Tour de France.

2025 Tour de France Predictions

Here are our Tour de France 2025 betting tips after exploring odds at the top sportsbooks:

Tim Merlier to Win Stage One @ 2.75 (7/4)

Main Prediction
Tim Merlier to Win Stage One
Best odds:
2.75 (7/4)
Agree with prediction?
(1 voted)

0

(100%) 1

Tim Merlier is no stranger to winning Grand Tour stages. The Belgian has won five Grand Tour stages so far, and one of those came at Tour de France. He tuned up for France with three June wins, taking the Brussels Cycling Classic and two Baloise Belgium Tour stages.

Merlier also won three stages at the Giro d’Italia last year. He has the credentials to start strong and dominate Lille Metropole to bag the first stage win. Merlier might struggle when the terrain gets tougher, but on flat stages, he’s a serious contender.

Top Three Finish Pick

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Simon Yates to Finish Top 10 @ 3.50 (5/2)

Risky Bet
Simon Yates to Finish Top 10
Best odds:
3.50 (5/2)
Agree with prediction?
(1 voted)

1 (100%)

0

Simon Yates comes to this race as the new Giro d’Italia champion, but he will have to settle for playing second fiddle to Jonas Vingegaard at Visma-Lease a Bike. Still, we value him as a top contender for one of the top 10 spots, especially at current prices.

Tim Merlier to Win Stage One
Best odds:
2.75 (7/4)
4.1
100% up to $500 on 1st deposit and 50% up to $250 on 2nd deposit
T&Cs Apply
4.9
250$ Sports Welcome Bonus
T&Cs Apply
4.6
100% up to $2000
T&Cs Apply
Simon Yates to Finish Top 10
Best odds:
3.50 (5/2)
4.1
100% up to $500 on 1st deposit and 50% up to $250 on 2nd deposit
T&Cs Apply
4.9
250$ Sports Welcome Bonus
T&Cs Apply
4.6
100% up to $2000
T&Cs Apply

Tim Merlier and Simon Yates feature in our final 2025 Tour de France betting picks. With strong recent performances under their belts, both drivers have the form and belief to make an impact in France.

Bren
Author
Content Writer

Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at BetZillion.

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